THE FUTURE OF THE VALLEYS

The BBC Wales documentary on the future of the South Wales Valleys broadcast on 16 March 2015* may be justified as provoking debate but what is desperately needed is intelligent and rational discussion of the issues. Engineering yet another confrontational exchange may be the default setting for those making cheap television but will do little to address the deep rooted social and economic problems of this or other parts of Wales. All too often any meaningful progress has been retarded by this approach in which reasoning turns quickly to rhetoric.

The documentary did little to properly explore the issues that were raised by Jonathan Adams in his IWA paper entitled A Catalyst for Reshaping the Valley Towns. The key point is in the word ‘reshaping’ and the prevailing tone of the trailers and the programme implied some vague proposal for a latter day Highland Clearance. The suggestion originally made by Jonathan Adams was neither ‘radical’ or ‘controversial’ as claimed by the narrator of the documentary and can in fact be seen  to be a simple reiteration of observations made in the South Wales Outline Plan of 1949;

 “ One of the major tasks facing the present generation is to devise means for rejuvenating the (mining) valleys…. The environment of those who live and work in these valleys must be radically improved……. The dual objective of physical planning in these (mining) areas must be to so ameliorate present conditions that industry can function more efficiently, and that those living there and dependent on it can do so in surroundings, and as part of a social structure, comparable with the best standards of modern neighbourhood planning”(South Wales Outline Plan 1949, p19)

The 1949 plan also suggested that the clearance and ‘thinning out’ of outworn dwellings was part of this process of renovation together with better communications, schools and community centres and recreation facilities. An underlying point is that the settlements in that particular area were dysfunctional from the time they were built. The 1949 plan recognised that the impact of coal mining on forms of urban development  was the rapid unplanned construction of “dwellings anywhere and anyhow” and an “untidy sprawl of towns and villages”. In short the settlements were produced by an inherently toxic combination of economic imperative and challenging topography. The proposals by Jonathan Adams are then more optimistic than the view of the great urban geographer Harold Carter in The Towns of Wales in 1965:

“The general character of these towns is, unfortunately, only too well known, and modern planning can do but little to improve it”

It is not then a novel debate nor did the documentary make any new observations. Those settlements that were the focus of the programme were largely the product of coal mining, an industry which grew from the 1850’s in that area, peaked in 1913 and progressively declined until   1989. In short it is 25 years since it’s been gone and 40 years since Max Boyce recorded Rhondda Grey and the issues are still not being discussed rationally.

The relationship between the Valleys and Cardiff was again raised as a contentious issue although that should be recognised as being symbiotic since BEFORE the industrialisation of South Wales. Cardiff relied upon its hinterland when its principal export was butter. Industrialisation must be seen to have been entirely dependent upon transport infrastructure for only with the construction of railways and connection to docks at Cardiff would the mining industry and ports grow from the 1840’s.  Communications remain central to the overall prosperity of the region and this has, again, been a standing issue since the South Wales Outline Plan of 1947;

 “As to regional communications, drastic improvements are called for ……. Though geographical circumstances in South Wales, and particularly in the mining valleys, often cause difficulties in attaining that end” (P10)

The documentary also did a disservice to the counter arguments for the Valleys.  Clearly there has been a need to address the catastrophic decline in the mining and other industries of South Wales.  As was pointed out in the course of the programme interventions in the form of factory building to create and diversify employment have been undertaken since the 1930’s when unemployment in the Valleys was around 40%. Interestingly the first major initiative, even then, involved the establishment of the Treforest Trading Estate on 272 acres of land closer to the coastal belt. The Distribution of Industries Act 1945 granted extensive powers to the Board of Trade for;

·        Building factories in the old ‘Distressed Areas’ and providing finance for industrial estates.

·        The provision for grants or loans to be made available to industrialists willing to establish factories in in these areas and

·        Financial aid for improvement of basic services and clearance of derelict sites

From the 1970’s there were the land reclamation programmes, industrial estates and other major interventions of the Welsh Development Agency. These so-called ‘regeneration’ initiatives have undoubtedly mitigated the full impact of industrial decline but, overall, GDP figures and other statistics suggest that the Valleys are falling further behind the European average. The area remains consistently at the top of league tables for inequalities of poverty, health and education.  Since devolution over £1.2bn of European aid has been spent in the Valleys and West Wales and nearly £300m on flagship Communities First projects to reduce poverty and empower the poorest areas in Wales. As to the latter the Welsh Assembly's Public Accounts Committee suggest that such initiatives have failed and the conclusion must be that small community based projects, as worthy and well intentioned as they are, will not in themselves reverse the damaging legacy of massive industrial decline.  

A forty minute television programme is not going produce a solution to the problems of the Valleys. From the outset the people who live there had to confront adversity from the nature of the predominant form of employment itself, mining, and the nature of the people who employed them. That history of struggle might even be said to inform the tenor of the argument put on their behalf in that television programme which was one of aggressive sentimentality. It most certainly colours their response to proposals emerging from Cardiff, London or Brussels and therein lays another problem. City regions have been a given through the course of human settlement and the vocal denial of this fact by those who claim to represent valley communities has retarded initiatives which might benefit the region and there is every sign that they will continue to do so. The deep seated parochialism of the Valleys communities can be represented as local pride and independence but there will come a time when the world will decide it can move on without them. 

    

The people of Wales and many elsewhere fully recognise that there is a unique history and character in the South Wales valleys and acknowledge that it has contributed significantly to a distinct regional identity. However, it may well be the case that more negative perceptions will be formed by the repeated claims that their lifestyle choice to remain there must be perpetuated by permanent subsidy of others in wider society. That was the impression given by those opposing Jonathan Adams proposition and a much more positive and constructive approach and tone may be needed to avoid further alienation of the Valleys from other communities in Wales. My first job was in Cardiff Docks and there was a tacit understanding that I would be obliged to go there i.e. they weren't going to bring the boats around to Skewen to save me the bother. 

*http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05gndqz/how-green-is-my-valley-a-future-for-the-valleys

Re-Open for Business?

One can broadly agree with what is being said in the foreword of Rebuilding Momentum, the green paper issued for consultation by Cardiff Council. One can also have reservations regarding the manner in which it is being said. This is a paper which is being written about business for business and perhaps purports to be no more or less than that. As such it signals the priorities in city governance for the future, which are for economic development. The consequent impact on city and regional planning are subordinate to those objectives. The first reservation is that this should, in itself, trigger a wider debate as to what we want this city to be and that this is unlikely to happen.

We may examine this proposition from the first paragraph. “The successes of the past are there for all to see, but it is now over a decade since the last major investment was secured and the city’s performance has dipped as a consequence. The foundations were laid, but not exploited. We need to rebuild momentum.”

Much may be made of this opening statement. We might, for instance, seek clarification of investment and performance which may be assumed to relate solely to commercial investment, employment and the local economy. In that decade we have seen significant investment in the infrastructure of higher education with the opening of new facilities by the University of Glamorgan at the Atrium and the Welsh College of Music and Drama. Cardiff University appears to have lost none of its momentum in the ongoing development of new facilities at Maindy, nor Cardiff Metropolitan at Llandaff. In culture the decade has seen the opening of the Wales Millennium Centre, refurbishment of the Sherman Theatre and Chapter Arts and a new Central Library. As regards more populist entertainment the new Cardiff City Stadium and athletics stadium were opened in that period. A new visitor centre was opened at Cardiff Castle. In terms of commercial business and employment the extension of the St Davids shopping centre and opening of John Lewis have had a significant impact.

What may be read into this opening paragraph is the assertion that few of the foregoing projects were initiated under the city administration between 2004 and 2012 but are a legacy from the previous Labour controlled council. That leadership is now back and Rebuilding Momentum is no more than a clear signal to investors and developers that things will be as they were prior to 2004. Development is the priority and consent and support for such development will be forthcoming from Cardiff Council. Investors and developers like clarity and certainty and the message here is unambiguous. We are people you can do business with. The well- meaning amateurs who were in charge for eight years have gone and we are re-open for business. That this message is directed at the private sector  is underlined in the closing sentence of the following paragraph and re-iterated in following paragraphs. The willingness to accommodate such interests is stated in the third paragraph.

Some thought needs to be given to the comment in the fourth paragraph that; Our universities also have an important role to play. They need to become central to our ambitions in the way that they haven’t been in the past. This may be a positive statement, an acceptance of the position asserted by Sir Brian Smith, the Vice Chancellor of Cardiff University in his dealings with the Labour administration at that time. That was that Cardiff University was by far the biggest game in town and the City Council needed to wake up to that fact. Smith was awarded a knighthood in 1999 in recognition of his efforts in building university links with industry and commerce assisting the Welsh Development Agency in opening up Chinese and Indian commercial markets for Wales. The Universities role would appear to have advanced the aspirations of this document and a robust affirmation of that fact may be forthcoming from that quarter. In that respect the author may need to be careful in what he wishes for in provoking any ‘town and gown’ conflict.

We may then turn to a few telling points in the fundamental principles set out in the foreword.

In the second of these is the need ‘to ensure big city projects’. Some of those are outlined in the main body of the paper and signal a return to the regime that supported the Millennium Stadium and the less successful  strategy of International Sports Villages, Mega casinos and the like. The stadium itself required a massive public subsidy, both overtly and covertly. The latter hardly evidence the success of fully embracing ‘the full potential of public private partnership which has served the city so well in the past’ referred to in the following paragraph. What that paragraph does clearly establish is that, in the view of the author of it,  ‘Cardiff must re-build a reputation as ‘open for business’. Therefore, by implication, it is suggested that an impression has been created among developers and investors that the city has been closed for business for a decade. As to whether this is a fact or merely a party political point needs to be examined.

The fourth point of principle concerns the role of Cardiff as the driver of the city-region and economy and raises a number of important issues. City regions are, in my view, a given - economically, socially and culturally. One key issue that we have consistently failed to address is one of governance. Hopeful someone in the Welsh Government will take issue with the statement in the green paper and open out this debate. It has been the view of the city that its role has not been ‘acknowledged and exploited’ by the regional government and that may very well be the case. Those who drafted the ineffectual Wales Spatial Plan in 2004 found it hard to even use the word ‘Cardiff’ and the recent working party on the city region avoided the issue of governance from the outset.

Such a debate will of course necessitate a frank discussion as to whether we have a surfeit of government and a paucity of sound governance in Wales. The current economic situation may precipitate acceptance of that rather than any political will to face up to the hard fact that we simply cannot afford the number of unitary authorities that we have presently. In the meantime we must, however, remember that there should be equal and balanced regard given to region in a city region. The adjoining counties are not there to simply accommodate low cost dormitory housing, waste disposal facilities or park and ride schemes for the city.

The closing paragraphs merely emphasise that this paper is about doing business. For many it is going to be difficult to separate the policy from the personality in considering the issues arising. The signatory to the foreword, Cllr Russell Goodway was, as leader of Cardiff Council until 2004, well regarded by the property and construction industry and some other business sectors. Rebuilding Momentum will be welcomed warmly as his personal manifesto in those quarters, as will be the return of ‘someone who gets things done’. Others may be more cautious and agree with the conclusions formed by Prof Kevin Morgan in in his paper Governing Cardiff: politics, power and personalities in Capital Cardiff 1975-2020. Among these reference is made to the conclusions of the Lyons Report of 2004 and the suggestion that ‘ Cardiff will have to attach the same political priority to public services as it hitherto bestowed on landmark projects and iconic buildings’. Given that the green paper was preceded by ‘consultation’ on the proposed closure of many public services and possible disposal of ‘unprofitable’ custodial assets of the city many would not be assured that this will be the case.

All the emphasis here is on assuring commercial investors and developers that Cardiff is very much back in business. The initial conclusion in reading the foreword of Rebuilding Momentum is that it may be dangerous to assume that the outcome of this paper will be a purely Platonic relationship between Cardiff Council and private sector business. The wider public may therefore need to pay attention to what may be the thin end of a large wedge for, as Plato himself said; “The price of apathy towards public affairs is to be ruled by evil men”

THE CITY REGION

The Welsh Government Business, Enterprise, Technology and Science Minister, Edwina Hart, established a task & finish group in November 2011 to consider the potential role of city regions in the future economic development of Wales. Their task is; to decide, on the basis of objective evidence, whether a city region approach to economic development will deliver an increase in jobs and prosperity for Wales as a whole. If this is the case, what parts of Wales should be included and why, and what is needed for the approach to be successful?

The introduction to the Task & Finish Group’s paper - ‘City Regions’ Definition & Criteria raises a number of immediate issues, the first and foremost being the suggestion that the Welsh Government would need to see very compelling evidence before committing to such an approach. This may be my subjective (cynical?) reading of the following;

City Regions are a tool, not a panacea. The approach provides one potential solution to policy or market failure.

The city region approach is a long term one – 20, 30 or 40 years. It requires developing a vision for the future: 2030 is now closer to us than 1990 …

Access to economic mass, skills, transport are important enablers of growth,productivity and innovation.

Successful international city regions tend to have a core theme/focus: Vancouver (airport); Bilbao (culture); Lille (connectivity); Rotterdam (logistics). 

Co-operation on (a) regionally significant project(s) should come first, followed by strategy/vision. Governance should be tackled last.

I query the statement that ‘City Regions are a tool, not a panacea’ for, in my view, city regions are a given, economically, socially and culturally and have been through the course of human settlement. Great cities attract the brightest and the best, those that adapt and change remain great. Cities compete with cities for the investment and development capital, not regions against regions. Can you name what ‘regions’ Vancouver, Bilbao, Lille and Rotterdam are in? Possibly, but the point to be made is the city is the ‘bigger brand’. The suggestion is that for Wales, or its sub-regions, to prosper economically, socially and culturally we need to have strong cities. Is the Task and Finish Group then asking the right questions? Further concerns are raised with their statement that ‘Co-operation on (a) regionally significant project(s) should come first, followed by strategy/vision. Governance should be tackled last.’  

My proposition is that governance is central to the issue and is not something to be ‘tackled last’. Wales appears to have a surfeit of government and a paucity of governance. Cities should by their very nature be centres of excellence and reflect that concentration of excellence in their civic administration –governance. Strong, healthy, dynamic cities regenerate themselves but in Wales regeneration has become a byword for government intervention. We have too many small unitary authorities, perhaps too small to attract and retain the excellent.  Furthermore we have seen these authorities competing amongst each other for the investment and development capital (i.e. financial subsistence) allocated by the regional government. Tribalism and parochial interest has bedeviled constructive discussion and any progress in advancing effective city regional strategy in the past.

I will focus here on the capital, Cardiff, to explore this point further. There are those in the capital who have claimed that regional investment has been dictated by an ‘ABC policy’ (Anywhere But Cardiff) and they in turn reminded that they had many fences to mend with their neighbours. This was manifested on the publication of the document Cardiff- A Proud Capital which many outside the city interpreted differently – ‘proud’ as in ‘selfish and arrogant’. Over a long period the city has been envied and unloved by its neighbours. To advance and develop any ‘co-operation on (a) regionally significant project(s)’ we must necessarily address the ‘concentric circles of self- interest’ that exist in Wales. What little progress has been made with collaborative working must be consolidated but a city region might only succeed if Cardiff can demonstrate effective, productive and beneficial civic leadership. If its civic leaders are unable to persuade its citizens and the people of Wales of the advantages of a strong capital we cannot persuade anyone else. This relates to what JK Galbraith called ‘the bi-modal symmetry of power.’ The majority must recognize that Cardiff is the defined and established centre and be persuaded to accept that it is a credible international ‘brand’. The operative word is credible- real and achievable- not selected from the portfolio of marketing consultants. Whilst generally critical of the persistent obsession with branding, identity and image I have to concede it is an essential element.Throughout history mankind has sought a collective identity, frequently that afforded by a city. The key word here may be SOUGHT – it has to be something they want to be part of. If the ‘bi-modal symmetry of power’ is to be realized the people of Wales have to really believe in Cardiff. The challenge is therefore for Cardiff develop an identity and implement a vision that everyone wants to be part of. This may be achieved if a compelling case is made with evident and tangible benefits for all, not the publication of yet more pretentious claims. We have witnessed the manifest failure of attempting to become a clone of Barcelona, Bilbao and Baltimore (although, viewed from Penarth on a sunny day, the skyline of Cardiff Bay does now look a lot like Benidorm.)

This of course proposes that strong and effective civic leadership may be part of the solution in Cardiff but the more cynical might suggest that it may not be in the political interest of the Welsh Government to have a strong and more autonomous city. I have referred above to the perceptions of the ‘ABC Policy’ and ‘concentric circles of self- interest’. For many this was manifested in the Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) – People, Places, Futures which was originally adopted by the National Assembly for Wales in November 2004. Whilst that Plan recognized the importance of the capital city it appeared to have no practical effect. Certainly as regards the capital someone found it hard to use the word Cardiff when writing the Wales Spatial Plan. As I recall the preferred euphemism at the time was ‘capital region’. Any questioning of this at the time was met with the response by officers of the Assembly Government that such discussion would not be viewed favourably. To explicitly challenge it might prejudice the necessary investment and resources that the capital needs to succeed. Put simply the terminology used may be interpreted as an implicit but pervasive threat that the city must ‘toe the line’ as regards regional governmental policy. This may not be considered surprising if the WSP were seen only as an expression of the policy and of the priorities of Assembly. Or indeed its superior authority – that’s realpolitik for you.

However, for others, the WSP read as a catalogue of constraint not an enunciation of the opportunity afforded by the city and again this must surely need to be addressed under the term ‘governance’. As stated above the importance of the city is a given and, in my own direct experience in the property and construction industry the region is clearly defined by the property and related markets. Property values as a measure and indicator evidence the city as the apex of such markets. However both the industry and the professions also recognize that cities do not and cannot exist in isolation and the city region is a given. They must co-exist and work with and for their hinterland to prosper. High property values and the levels of economic activity that generate them are simply not sustainable without an effective engagement with the region, the most obvious example being in the available supply of suitable labour in successful urban centres. The quality of that labour force, their education, housing, entertainment, ease of access to the city and all other factors must necessarily be taken into account by the commercial property developer. The property and construction industry may only be motivated to participate in this debate through self- interest but that interest necessarily extends to the city region. It might have been wise to have had someone from that industry on the Task and Finish Group – or any commercial industry- to ensure effective engagement. That said, there are many in industry and the commercial professions in Wales now suffering from consultation fatigue.

Having focused on Cardiff to rehearse some of the governance issues we might then turn to other city regions. Swansea Bay/ Ospreylia is perhaps the most obvious candidate and one where moves have been made on cooperation on regionally significant projects. The fragility of such arrangements may best be illustrated by the proposed new research and innovation campus for Swansea University which would largely be located in the adjoining borough of Neath and Port Talbot. In that connection I will refer to only those matters in the public domain, for example, that the members of Swansea City Council overruled their officers and opposed the planning application submitted to Neath and Port Talbot. It might be suggested that they would not have opposed that application had the subject land been within the City.

At best an uneasy truce is maintained on matters which impact across current political boundaries such as the location of and access to new schools in adjoining boroughs, planning for retail parks and superstores, waste disposal, highways,etc. For this to be an effective city region the matter of governance is unavoidable for, at best, co-operation is wasteful in terms of human resources within the three authorities ‘co-operating’. The three unitary authorities in that area are to be commended for making what progress they have and we can only speculate as to whether they would have made three times the progress if they were one authority.

We then turn from Ospreylia to perhaps the more thorny subject of Carport. Newport has been designated a city, has historically served a region and continues to do so. However, in many areas- economically, socially and culturally- it clearly falls under the penumbra of Cardiff. To use again a simple anecdotal example from the property market, the received wisdom is that the business parks at J28 of the M4 – Cleppa Park, Celtic Lakes et al- would be more successful if they had a Cardiff postcode and telephone number. It might be reasonably assumed that hell will freeze solid before Newport becomes an eastern suburb of Cardiff. The Task and Finish Group then has to ask what practical benefit would the notion of ‘city region’ confer on Newport? It clearly cannot compete with Cardiff or Bristol so what rationale could be conjured up to support such a strategy? In addressing this the Group must then raise questions as to the role and purpose of these cities as the locomotives of regional regeneration. Answers may not be easily found in the proposition that ‘Successful international city regions tend to have a core theme/focus: Vancouver (airport); Bilbao (culture); Lille (connectivity); Rotterdam (logistics)’.

By my recollection Vancouver has a bit more going for it than an airport. That said none of our cities have anything going for them if we rely on our present airport. As to connectivity they are on the western side of an island to the North West of Europe so logistics would be illogical. So what, in the jargon of the marketers, is their Unique Selling Proposition? What are the features of our cities that will attract the attention of the brightest and best?

This may be broadly termed ‘culture’. In a 2006 paper on the future of Cardiff I offered three themes that I had some personal empathy with. They were entertainment, education and experiment and I outlined how the three might be interrelated as regards their contribution to a dynamic urban centre.

ENTERTAINMENT

At that time there was still discussion regarding the failure of Cardiff to secure the status as a Capital of Culture and I suggested that a problem with such contests was not least the definition of ‘culture’. I understood that it was taken in a wider sense for the purposes of that particular civic beauty parade and not solely confined to the arts. However it is defined it may be accepted that Cardiff and Wales have an established tradition of active participation and success in collective and populist entertainment. The word ‘collective’ again provides the thread in this argument in that historically we have had also had traditions of such collective participation in arts and culture whether these be choirs, brass bands or amateur theatricals. Whilst such practices have declined Cardiff and Wales evidence continued social and physical engagement with activities such as sport and other performing arts. Many people will still go to a place at some expense and personal discomfort to be part of a social event despite the availability of digital entertainment.  Welsh entertainers continue to achieve wider distinction and renown.

Continuing this theme it may be suggested that we have a particular ‘disposition to social life’ and that participation in such activity evidences a general love of life. If so then I suggest it is an attractive proposition and we may do a lot worse than reinforcing hwyl as a native tendency rather than striving to import any alien characteristics. As to the city, widespread recognition that it offers a diverse and rich range of entertainment must be considered an asset.

The Capital of Culture bid by Cardiff outlined what is needed in terms of developing and rounding out the offer, particularly in the visual arts and full engagement with the wider community - in the widest sense. The emphasis is on inclusivity not exclusivity and engaging the maximum number of people.

EDUCATION

My 2006 notes were originally prepared for people who speculate on futures through property investment and development. As with the reality of a city region many of them may take it as a given that the future is about what the young will do not what the old have done. Developing, attracting and retaining the brightest and best is essential for the future of the city. Asking what we can do to facilitate and enable greater national and international recognition as a centre of learning and research must be a central question.

It is obvious to those who accept the city region as a given as defined by its catchment area of skilled labour that this would be one of the biggest university towns in country if better defined. Linking back to the foregoing point on entertainment and amenity the attractions of Cardiff must undeniably attract and benefit students at Pontypridd and Newport. That gives the region an exciting and dynamic young population, a highly skilled workforce which might potentially provide the entrepreneurial and innovative commercial base we need. In short an available workforce which is clearly superior to that available elsewhere.

I hasten to add that this does not support the notion that merging higher education establishments in Cardiff, Treforest and Newport into a single institution may be beneficial. That is an entirely separate issue which I will be deal with in another blog.

EXPERIMENT

As with any commercial enterprise we can only succeed by innovation. A depressing aspect of Cardiff- A Proud Capital was the emphasis placed upon the development of an enlarged and enclosed shopping centre, another football stadium and an ‘international sports village’. These amenities may add to the diversity and range of entertainment outlined above but differ little from any town and city bidding to be shortlisted for a super casino. In hindsight that document did in fact appear to be merely something produced to that end.

We will not achieve distinction by borrowing ideas. Unless we can genuinely claim originality and be seen as a place where new ideas are formed we will not have a future. The caveat on Higher Education above is again relevant and the pursuit of excellence dealt with in another blog. In the context of the city region debate it is relevant in the sense that we must necessarily decide whether we are going to back winners or subsidise losers.

Coupled with these three themes there is of course the role of the city in commerce. The Task and Finish Group must necessarily consider the historic role of the city as a place of exchange and how that may be perpetuated. For as long as people have gathered together for mutual defence and worship they have also gathered at market and that function, I suggest, will continue. The National Assembly may wish to distribute wealth more evenly and it is a worthy objective. We will however by attempting to buck a trend of several thousand years if we try to prevent people gathering at the largest convenient market. Further advances in information technology will inevitably lead  to more changes in working, shopping and social habits but will not completely replace major commercial and cultural centres. That may be due in part to mankind’s disposition to social life and well established patterns of behaviour such as the collective pursuit of abundance